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Gene study (Mendelian randomization)

Gene study of 512,724 Chinese adults: more drinking linked to higher heart death

Millwood and colleagues · The Lancet. Public health · 2023

Original title: Alcohol intake and cause-specific mortality: conventional and genetic evidence in a prospective cohort study of 512 000 adults in China.

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What the study found

Points to harm

Among drinkers, each 100 g a week was linked to higher heart death (HR 1·19 [1·15-1·24]). Gene-predicted drinking in men also raised heart death (HR 1·15 [1·10-1·19]), mostly stroke. No gene evidence that moderate drinking protects.

The study at a glance

Type of study
Gene study (Mendelian randomization)
Who or what was studied
512,724 people · 512,724 Chinese adults aged 30 to 79, followed 12 years
What was tested
Self-reported drinking and gene-predicted drinking (4 to 255 g a week in men)
What it measured
The question itself: heart disease and death
Who has a stake
Company stake
No competing interests declared; funders include GlaxoSmithKline, not an alcohol maker.
Journal
The Lancet. Public health, 2023
Source
PubMed record 38000378. This page is based on the abstract only.

How much this study counts

  • •A gene study: it uses natural gene differences as a kind of experiment. It is less affected by lifestyle than surveys, but it rests on assumptions that can fail.
  • ✓Large: 512,724 people.
  • ✓Measured the question itself: heart disease and death.
  • –Company stake: No competing interests declared; funders include GlaxoSmithKline, not an alcohol maker.
  • •Summarized from the PubMed abstract only. The full paper may hold details the abstract leaves out.

✓ Strength– Limit• Note

These points come from fixed rules about the type of study, its size and length, what it measured, and who has a stake. Every study on Digestery gets the same rules.

Where this study sits

Each dot is one on-topic paper on this question. Steps near the top answer the question more directly.

↑ Stronger evidence

  1. Trials in people: heart disease

    0

    Not done yet. This is the step that would answer the question.

  2. Trials in people: other measures

    0

    None among the papers we read.

  3. Trials in people: lab tests or safety

    0

    None among the papers we read.

  4. Population studies

    5

    3 benefit, 1 mixed, 1 harm

  5. Blood levels and genes

    6

    1 mixed, 2 no difference, 3 harm

    ↑ This study is the ringed dot

↓ Weaker evidence

  • Points to benefit
  • Mixed
  • No difference
  • No direction
  • Points to harm

How it fits with the other research

The short answer to “Is moderate drinking good or bad for your heart?”

Not shown to help; may harm.

Confidence: very low. Based on 21 on-topic papers.

Read the full answer

Of the other 5 papers on the same step: 1 mixed, 2 no difference, 2 harm. This one found harm.

Other papers on the same step

See all 21 studies on this question

How this page was made

Label

First read of the abstract
Claude Sonnet
Independent second read
Claude Haiku
Differences settled
The reviewer corrected 1 field after reading the abstract. Claude Opus 5.5.
Headline
Claude Sonnet, from the checked study record. A script checked its numbers and wording.
Numbers
Checked against the abstract by a script
“How much this study counts”
Fixed rules, the same for every study
Source check by a person
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