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Population study: followed a group

Study that followed 198,636 adults: ultra-processed food linked to higher type 2 diabetes risk

Chen and colleagues · Diabetes care · 2023

Original title: Ultra-Processed Food Consumption and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Three Large Prospective U.S. Cohort Studies.

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What the study found

Points to harm

Highest vs lowest fifth had a hazard ratio of 1.46 (95% CI 1.39-1.54) for type 2 diabetes. Pooled, each 10% increase in ultra-processed food was linked to 12% higher risk. Some subgroups (whole-grain breads, yogurt) were linked to lower risk.

The study at a glance

Type of study
Population study: followed a group
Who or what was studied
198,636 people · 71,871 + 87,918 US women and 38,847 US men, plus a pooled analysis of 415,554 people
What was tested
Highest vs lowest fifth of ultra-processed food intake and later type 2 diabetes
What it measured
The question itself: death, heart disease, diabetes and cancer
Who has a stake
Company stake
One author received speaker and consulting fees from the Dairy Farmers of Canada, an industry group, outside this work.
Journal
Diabetes care, 2023
Source
PubMed record 36854188. This page is based on the abstract only.

How much this study counts

  • –Shows a link, not a cause: people chose their own habits, and other differences between them may explain the result.
  • ✓Followed people over time, so habits were recorded before the outcome happened.
  • ✓Large: 198,636 people.
  • ✓Measured the question itself: death, heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
  • –Company stake: One author received speaker and consulting fees from the Dairy Farmers of Canada, an industry group, outside this work.
  • •Summarized from the PubMed abstract only. The full paper may hold details the abstract leaves out.

✓ Strength– Limit• Note

These points come from fixed rules about the type of study, its size and length, what it measured, and who has a stake. Every study on Digestery gets the same rules.

Where this study sits

Each dot is one on-topic paper on this question. Steps near the top answer the question more directly.

↑ Stronger evidence

  1. Trials in people: death and chronic disease

    2

    1 no difference, 1 harm

  2. Trials in people: other measures

    3

    1 mixed, 1 no direction, 1 harm

  3. Trials in people: lab tests or safety

    1

    1 mixed

  4. Population studies

    17

    1 mixed, 16 harm

    ↑ This study is the ringed dot

  5. Blood levels and genes

    0

    None among the papers we read.

↓ Weaker evidence

  • Points to benefit
  • Mixed
  • No difference
  • No direction
  • Points to harm

How it fits with the other research

The short answer to “Are ultra-processed foods bad for your health?”

Linked to worse health; cause not proven.

Confidence: low. Based on 38 on-topic papers.

Read the full answer

Of the other 16 papers on the same step: 1 mixed, 15 harm. This one found harm. It agrees with most of them.

Other papers on the same step

See all 38 studies on this question

How this page was made

Label

First read of the abstract
Claude Sonnet
Independent second read
Claude Haiku
Differences settled
The two reads differed. The reviewer checked the abstract and kept the first read. Claude Opus 5.5.
Headline
Claude Sonnet, from the checked study record. A script checked its numbers and wording.
Numbers
Checked against the abstract by a script
“How much this study counts”
Fixed rules, the same for every study
Source check by a person
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