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Computer model: eating 30% less meat estimated to mean fewer heart disease cases

Kennedy and colleagues · The Lancet. Planetary health · 2024

Original title: Estimated effects of reductions in processed meat consumption and unprocessed red meat consumption on occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the USA: a microsimulation study.

Under review. A person has not yet checked this summary against the paper. It is written from the PubMed abstract. Until a person checks it, search engines are asked not to list this page.

What the study found

Points to harm

The model estimated a 30% cut in both meats could prevent 382 400 heart disease cases, 84 400 bowel cancer cases and 62 200 deaths in 10 years. The authors say red meat effects are less certain.

The study at a glance

Type of study
Other
Who or what was studied
8,665 people · A computer model of US adults built from a national survey of 8665 people
What was tested
Computer model of eating 30% less processed meat, red meat, or both over 10 years
What it measured
The question itself: cancer, heart disease and death
Who has a stake
No stake declared
No competing interests declared; funded by Wellcome Trust.
Journal
The Lancet. Planetary health, 2024
Source
PubMed record 38969472. This page is based on the abstract only.

How much this study counts

  • •Another kind of paper. It carries no weight on the ladder.
  • ✓No competing interests declared.
  • •Summarized from the PubMed abstract only. The full paper may hold details the abstract leaves out.

✓ Strength– Limit• Note

These points come from fixed rules about the type of study, its size and length, what it measured, and who has a stake. Every study on Digestery gets the same rules.

Where this study sits

This paper is not on the ladder. It is a other, and reviews and opinion pieces discuss studies that are already counted on the steps below.

↑ Stronger evidence

  1. Trials in people: cancer and heart disease

    0

    Not done yet. This is the step that would answer the question.

  2. Trials in people: other measures

    0

    None among the papers we read.

  3. Trials in people: lab tests or safety

    6

    2 benefit, 4 harm

  4. Population studies

    12

    1 benefit, 2 mixed, 1 no difference, 8 harm

  5. Blood levels and genes

    0

    None among the papers we read.

↓ Weaker evidence

  • Points to benefit
  • Mixed
  • No difference
  • No direction
  • Points to harm

How it fits with the other research

The short answer to “Does red meat raise cancer and heart disease risk?”

Linked to higher risk, especially processed meat.

Confidence: low. Based on 30 on-topic papers.

Read the full answer

Other opinion on this question

See all 30 studies on this question

How this page was made

Label

First read of the abstract
Claude Sonnet
Independent second read
Claude Haiku
Differences settled
The two reads agreed on every checked field. Claude Opus 5.5.
Headline
Claude Sonnet, from the checked study record. A script checked its numbers and wording.
Numbers
Checked against the abstract by a script
“How much this study counts”
Fixed rules, the same for every study
Source check by a person
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